Severe Weather Threat Shifts East Wednesday & Thursday

A frontal boundary stretched across half of the U.S. will continue to bring episodes of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain as it stalls out. The Central U.S. will get the brunt of the severe weather on Wednesday & Thursday, before shifting into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes by Friday.  A Tornado watch has been issued for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

While the most intense storms from Wednesday morning are expected to diminish, another round of severe weather across the south-central U.S. by the afternoon is possible. The threat for damaging winds, large to very large hail, and tornadoes will remain in play. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for the metro of Dallas, TX. There are also significant threats to watch out for. This will be in the form of 2"+ hail or an EF-2 or stronger tornado (above).

More generally, there is a 2-10% risk for tornadoes across Texas through Arkansas as well as southern Illinois and Indiana. Wednesday morning, severe thunderstorm watches were in place to account for the strong storms moving across Oklahoma. Through the afternoon, storms will progress across OK, TX, and into AR. Additional storms will be possible through southern IL and IN.

By Thursday the storms will reach the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Scattered thunderstorms will reach as far north as New England. While the severe threat is expected to lessen compared to earlier in the week, some embedded strong storms may still occur, particularly in areas where instability persists. A Slight risk is issued for Friday (level 2 out of 5). The threats for Thursday include gusty winds, localized heavy rainfall, and a hail risk. 

The combination of repeated rounds of thunderstorms, especially earlier in the week, has left soils saturated in portions of eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, and western Arkansas. Though the severe threat shifts east, residual flooding concerns may continue into Thursday in these areas before drying out. 

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